Lamphun Warrior 2-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Prachuap travel to Mae Guang Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at Mae Guang Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Mae Guang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Lamphun Warrior carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Prachuap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 46% versus Prachuap 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 46% | Prachuap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.77 xG and Prachuap 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.028 / defence 0.923 | Prachuap attack 0.785 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.275. Data: 42 Lamphun Warrior games / 41 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 57% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 19%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Prachuap 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 57% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.77 / Prachuap 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.028 / def 0.923 | Prachuap attack 0.785 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Prachuap xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 57% chance of winning, Prachuap a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Record (2 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Prachuap (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.10
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.70
0.92
Prachuap xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
31.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.92 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 12W 11D 18L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 20L across 41 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.15 PPG, Prachuap on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 9W 6D 6L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Prachuap's away record stands at 3W 6D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.32 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 11D 18L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 10W 11D 20L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Prachuap away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.57 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Prachuap have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 52%, Prachuap 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lamphun Warrior) and 57% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 33% of games; Prachuap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 62% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 57% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Prachuap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Prachuap 2-1 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.77 xG and Prachuap 0.92 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Prachuap attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 57% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 19%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 46%, Prachuap 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.15 PPG, Prachuap 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.