Lamphun Warrior 3-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Port FC to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at 700th Anniversary Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Port FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Port FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Port FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Port FC in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 38% versus Port FC 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 34% | Port FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.16 xG and Port FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.824 / defence 0.941 | Port FC attack 1.252 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.211. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Lamphun Warrior games / 59 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 28% | Port FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Port FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Port FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 28% | Port FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.16 / Port FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.824 / def 0.941 | Port FC attack 1.252 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Port FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Port FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Lamphun Warrior 3 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 30% chance of winning, Port FC a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Port FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.82) and Port FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.63
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.58
1.43
Port FC xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
7%
13.91
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.43 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 8W 9D 12L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Port FC's form line: 14W 10D 5L from 29 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 5W 6D 3L from 14 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.76 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 72%.
Last 29 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
Port FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Port FC have gone 14W 10D 5L in their last 29 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.43 PPG; Port FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 43%, Port FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lamphun Warrior) and 50% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 43% of games; Port FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 71% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 50% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Port FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Port FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Port FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Port FC 3-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.16 xG and Port FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Port FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.89, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 28% | Port FC 42%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 34%, Port FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Lamphun Warrior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.