Lamphun Warrior 2-1 Lampang FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Lampang FC to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at 700th Anniversary Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lampang FC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lampang FC have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Lamphun Warrior carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Lampang FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Lampang FC trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 33% versus Lampang FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 30% | Lampang FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.38 xG and Lampang FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.818 / defence 0.930 | Lampang FC attack 0.673 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.148. Data: 27 Lamphun Warrior games / 27 Lampang FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 53% | Draw 28% | Lampang FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Lampang FC 5.26. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lamphun Warrior 50% | Lampang FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 53% | Draw 28% | Lampang FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.38 / Lampang FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.818 / def 0.930 | Lampang FC attack 0.673 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Lampang FC xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 1 Lampang FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 53% chance of winning, Lampang FC a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC?
Record (1 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 0 | Lampang FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Lampang FC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Lampang FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.53
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.10
0.72
Lampang FC xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
5%
20.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.72 for Lampang FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 9D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lampang FC sit at 0.59 PPG from 27 outings (3W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Lampang FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 4W 5D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Lampang FC have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (0W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lampang FC are on 0.70 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Lampang FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Lampang FC have gone 3W 7D 17L in their last 27 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Lampang FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.31 PPG; Lampang FC away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
0
Draws
0
Lampang FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Lampang FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Lamphun Warrior 2-1 Lampang FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 38%, Lampang FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lamphun Warrior) and 46% (Lampang FC).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 46% of games; Lampang FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Lampang FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Lampang FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 54% of Lampang FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 46% of Lampang FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lampang FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Lampang FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Lampang FC 2-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.38 xG and Lampang FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.82 / defence 0.93 against Lampang FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 53% | Draw 28% | Lampang FC 19%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 30%, Lampang FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Lampang FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lamphun Warrior arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.