Lamphun Warrior 2-3 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mae Guang Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at Mae Guang Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Mae Guang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khon Kaen United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Lamphun Warrior 0W, Khon Kaen United 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 51% versus Khon Kaen United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 49% | Khon Kaen United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.13 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.029 / defence 0.944 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.734 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.205. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Lamphun Warrior games / 55 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Khon Kaen United 13%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Khon Kaen United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Khon Kaen United 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Khon Kaen United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.13 / Khon Kaen United 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.029 / def 0.944 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.734 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Khon Kaen United xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 3 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 67% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United?
Record (3 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 2 | Khon Kaen United 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Khon Kaen United's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (0.73x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.17
13%
7.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.97
0.83
Khon Kaen United xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
7.44
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
12%
8.45
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
2%
62.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.83 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 16D 22L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.11 PPG from 55 outings (13W 22D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.11 for Khon Kaen United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.63 points per game from 27 outings (3W 8D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khon Kaen United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.98 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 16D 22L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 13W 22D 20L in their last 55 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.74 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
3
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Khon Kaen United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Khon Kaen United 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 63%, Khon Kaen United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamphun Warrior) and 44% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Khon Kaen United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 48% of Khon Kaen United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 44% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khon Kaen United defy the odds to beat Lamphun Warrior 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Lamphun Warrior 2-3 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.13 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.83 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Khon Kaen United outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.73 / defence 1.22, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Khon Kaen United 13%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Khon Kaen United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 49%, Khon Kaen United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.22 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.