Lamphun Warrior 1-1 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours BG Pathum United (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamphun Warrior face BG Pathum United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior host BG Pathum United at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour BG Pathum United — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 4 for BG Pathum United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with BG Pathum United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BG Pathum United in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 60% versus BG Pathum United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 53% | BG Pathum United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.37 xG and BG Pathum United 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.049 / defence 1.310 | BG Pathum United attack 0.964 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.210. Data: 45 Lamphun Warrior games / 45 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 40%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | BG Pathum United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 90% | BG Pathum United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.37 / BG Pathum United 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.049 / def 1.310 | BG Pathum United attack 0.964 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.53
BG Pathum United xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 BG Pathum United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 32% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United?
Record (7 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 2W | Draws 1 | BG Pathum United 4W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. BG Pathum United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.05) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
32%
3.08
28%
3.58
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.90
1.53
BG Pathum United xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
7%
14.20
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.53 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 10W 18D 17L from 45 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 10L across 45 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BG Pathum United by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 7W 9D 6L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BG Pathum United's away record stands at 7W 9D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.51 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 18D 17L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 23W 12D 10L in their last 45 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or BG Pathum United away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.36 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when Lamphun Warrior won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 59%, BG Pathum United 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lamphun Warrior) and 54% (BG Pathum United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 64% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 54% of BG Pathum United's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.37 xG and BG Pathum United 1.53 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.05 / defence 1.31 against BG Pathum United attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 40%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 53%, BG Pathum United 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.