Lampang FC 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lampang FC host Ratchaburi at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lampang FC stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lampang FC at Lampang Provincial Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ratchaburi are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lampang FC have won 0, Ratchaburi 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lampang FC in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lampang FC 55% versus Ratchaburi 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lampang FC 55% | Ratchaburi 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lampang FC 0.73 xG and Ratchaburi 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lampang FC attack 0.632 / defence 1.454 | Ratchaburi attack 0.977 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.108. Lampang FC's attack strength of 0.632 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Lampang FC games / 50 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lampang FC 16% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 56%. Fair-value odds: Lampang FC 6.25 | Draw 3.57 | Ratchaburi 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Lampang FC 50% | Ratchaburi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Lampang Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lampang FC 16% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Lampang FC 0.73 / Ratchaburi 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Lampang FC attack 0.632 / def 1.454 | Ratchaburi attack 0.977 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Lampang FC xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Ratchaburi xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi?
Lampang FC 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Lampang FC a 16% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lampang FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Lampang FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Lampang FC and Ratchaburi in?
Lampang FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lampang FC's attack rating (0.63) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Lampang FC's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
16%
6.32
28%
3.58
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Lampang FC xG
Total xG
2.30
1.57
Ratchaburi xG
6.32
16%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
3%
30.49
27%
3.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 15.7 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lampang FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Lampang FC and 1.57 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Lampang FC have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 2W 6D 12L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 9W 6D 5L from 20 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lampang FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lampang FC have posted 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lampang FC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.20 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lampang FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lampang FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Lampang FC have gone 2W 6D 12L in their last 20 games (0.60 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lampang FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lampang FC at home: 0.56 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Lampang FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lampang FC have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lampang FC
0
Draws
1
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Ratchaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Lampang FC have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lampang FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Lampang FC 1-0 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lampang FC 56%, Ratchaburi 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lampang FC) and 11% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 33%; Lampang FC have failed to score in 44% of games; Ratchaburi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lampang FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lampang FC play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lampang FC's recent matches and 33% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lampang FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Lampang FC's recent games and 11% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lampang FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Lampang FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lampang FC defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lampang FC beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lampang FC 0.73 xG and Ratchaburi 1.57 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lampang FC attack 0.63 / defence 1.45 against Ratchaburi attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lampang FC 16% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 56%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Lampang FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lampang FC 55%, Ratchaburi 15%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lampang FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Lampang FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lampang FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.