Khon Kaen United 2-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Khon Kaen United face Nakhon Pathom.

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Analysis

Nakhon Pathom make the trip to Khon Kaen Stadium to face Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1 (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Khon Kaen United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Khon Kaen United have posted 2W 7D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Nakhon Pathom's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Khon Kaen United, 1 for Nakhon Pathom and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Khon Kaen United 2–4 Nakhon Pathom — a Nakhon Pathom win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 48% of games.

Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khon Kaen United 48% and Nakhon Pathom 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 52% | Nakhon Pathom 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.31 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.718 / defence 0.808 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.882 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 1.159. Khon Kaen United's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Data: built from Khon Kaen United's last 51 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 21.

Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 46% | Draw 33% | Nakhon Pathom 21%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.18 | Draw 3.06 | Nakhon Pathom 4.66. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Khon Kaen United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Khon Kaen United 50% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Pathom 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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