Chonburi FC 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Chonburi UTA Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Chonburi UTA Stadium this season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 40% versus Sukhothai FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chonburi FC 40% | Sukhothai FC 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.45 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.925 / defence 0.940 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.129. Data: 40 Chonburi FC games / 10 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 52% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 4.76. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chonburi FC 70% | Sukhothai FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 52% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Chonburi FC 1.45 / Sukhothai FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.925 / def 0.940 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.774 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sukhothai FC xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 52% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.93) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.65
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Sukhothai FC xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
5%
20.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.82 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC come into this having played 10 games, going 7W 1D 2L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chonburi FC's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Sukhothai FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 games (2.20 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.80 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
1
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 40%, Sukhothai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Chonburi FC and 20% for Sukhothai FC.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 60% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 20% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.45 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.18, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 52% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 21%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 40%, Sukhothai FC 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.