Chonburi FC 2-3 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Chiangrai United travel to Chonburi Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 October 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.75 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.25). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Chiangrai United trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 75% and Chiangrai United 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chonburi FC 75% | Chiangrai United 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.58 xG and Chiangrai United 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.083 / defence 1.093 | Chiangrai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.304. Data: 4 Chonburi FC games / 4 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 26%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Chiangrai United 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 75% | Chiangrai United 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Chonburi FC 1.58 / Chiangrai United 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.083 / def 1.093 | Chiangrai United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Chiangrai United xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Chonburi FC 2 - 3 Chiangrai United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 42% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-W-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (1.08) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
42%
2.36
32%
3.13
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.21
Chiangrai United xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
5%
18.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.21 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 2W 2D 0L from 4 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chonburi FC by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chiangrai United heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 3.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Chiangrai United in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
3
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chiangrai United tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 75%, Chiangrai United at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Chonburi FC and 75% for Chiangrai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Chonburi FC's games and 75% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Chonburi FC's matches and 75% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chiangrai United defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Chonburi FC 2-3 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.58 xG and Chiangrai United 1.21 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Chiangrai United outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against Chiangrai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 26%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Chiangrai United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 75%, Chiangrai United 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC managed 2 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.