Chiangrai United 2-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC meet at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 October 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 5W 2D 3L at LEO Chiangrai Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Chiangrai United. A 0.70 PPG lead over Sukhothai FC (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sukhothai FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Sukhothai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 68% versus Sukhothai FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 59% | Sukhothai FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.95 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.062 / defence 0.832 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.936 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.730 / away 1.137. Data: 35 Chiangrai United games / 34 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 62% | Draw 22% | Sukhothai FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Sukhothai FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 70% | Sukhothai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 62% | Draw 22% | Sukhothai FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Chiangrai United 1.95 / Sukhothai FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.062 / def 0.832 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.936 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.730 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sukhothai FC xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 2 October 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Chiangrai United 2 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 62% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
Record (2 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.94x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.45
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.83
0.89
Sukhothai FC xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
44.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.89 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 14W 9D 11L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 9W 11D 14L from 34 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.12 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 6D 7L from 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.85 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 14W 9D 11L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.94 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sukhothai FC won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
5
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 69%, Sukhothai FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chiangrai United) and 38% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Chiangrai United's games and 56% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 38% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Sukhothai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Sukhothai FC 2-1 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.95 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 62% | Draw 22% | Sukhothai FC 16%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 59%, Sukhothai FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.50 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.