Chiangrai United 0-0 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Chiangrai United welcome Nakhon Pathom to Singha Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 2W 4D 4L at Singha Chiangrai Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Pathom stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 1.20 (Nakhon Pathom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chiangrai United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nakhon Pathom in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chiangrai United, 0 for Nakhon Pathom and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chiangrai United trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Nakhon Pathom trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 56% and Nakhon Pathom 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 48% | Nakhon Pathom 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.52 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.857 / defence 1.044 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.885 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.191. Data: 57 Chiangrai United games / 27 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 47% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Pathom 27%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Nakhon Pathom 3.70. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 60% | Nakhon Pathom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 47% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Pathom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Chiangrai United 1.52 / Nakhon Pathom 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.857 / def 1.044 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.885 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Nakhon Pathom xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Chiangrai United 0 - 0 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 47% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (1 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Pathom 0W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.86) and Nakhon Pathom's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.75
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.62
1.10
Nakhon Pathom xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.10 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 8W 9D 10L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom's form line: 8W 8D 11L from 27 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.22 PPG, Nakhon Pathom on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 4D 6L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 74%.
Last 27 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.46 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2025, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Nakhon Pathom specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Chiangrai United 3-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chiangrai United at 54%, Nakhon Pathom at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chiangrai United) and 54% (Nakhon Pathom).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Chiangrai United's games and 77% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 54% of Nakhon Pathom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chiangrai United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Chiangrai United and Nakhon Pathom drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.52 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.10 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Nakhon Pathom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 47% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Pathom 27%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 48%, Nakhon Pathom 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.22 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.