Chiangrai United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Chiangrai United welcome Lamphun Warrior to Leo Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's home record at Leo Chiangrai Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Chiangrai United have won 2, Lamphun Warrior 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 44% versus Lamphun Warrior 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 37% | Lamphun Warrior 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.61 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.795 / defence 0.871 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.952 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.207. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lamphun Warrior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Chiangrai United games / 44 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 21%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Lamphun Warrior 4.76. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 30% | Lamphun Warrior 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Chiangrai United 1.61 / Lamphun Warrior 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.795 / def 0.871 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.952 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lamphun Warrior xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Chiangrai United 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 49% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (6 meetings): Chiangrai United 2W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 3W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.29
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.62
1.00
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
24.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.00 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 15W 9D 19L from 43 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 9W 17D 17L across 43 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.26 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 13W 2D 7L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 3W 8D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 9W 17D 17L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.86 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 27%, Lamphun Warrior 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Chiangrai United) and 50% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 27% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 59% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.61 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.00 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.80 / defence 0.87 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.95 / defence 1.34, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 21%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 37%, Lamphun Warrior 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.26 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.