Chiangmai United 1-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangmai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Chiangmai United welcome Nong Bua Pitchaya to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Chiangmai United — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nong Bua Pitchaya away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Nong Bua Pitchaya's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Chiangmai United's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chiangmai United, 1 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Chiangmai United in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangmai United 62% and Nong Bua Pitchaya 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 54% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 1.05 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.848 / defence 1.512 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.012 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 1.073. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Chiangmai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Chiangmai United games / 24 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 23% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.00. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangmai United 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% BTTS from recent games.

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