Chiangmai United 1-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Chonburi FC travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Chiangmai United. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 March 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangmai United stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chonburi FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chiangmai United, 0 for Chonburi FC and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chiangmai United trading profile (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Chonburi FC trading profile (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangmai United 61% and Chonburi FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 56% | Chonburi FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 1.12 xG and Chonburi FC 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.847 / defence 1.564 | Chonburi FC attack 0.945 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 1.089. Chonburi FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Chiangmai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Chiangmai United games / 23 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 26% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Chonburi FC 2.08. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chiangmai United 50% | Chonburi FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangmai United 26% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Chiangmai United 1.12 / Chonburi FC 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangmai United attack 0.847 / def 1.564 | Chonburi FC attack 0.945 / def 1.349 | league avg home 0.977 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Chiangmai United xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Chonburi FC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 4 March 2022 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC?
Chiangmai United 1 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangmai United a 26% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chiangmai United 0W | Draws 1 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC in?
Chiangmai United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chiangmai United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Chiangmai United's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
26%
3.87
26%
3.85
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Chiangmai United xG
Total xG
2.73
1.61
Chonburi FC xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
5%
19.36
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.61 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangmai United come into this having played 23 games, going 3W 4D 16L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Chiangmai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chiangmai United's home form reads 1W 1D 8L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chonburi FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangmai United are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.74 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangmai United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangmai United
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Chiangmai United have gone 3W 4D 16L in their last 23 games (0.57 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangmai United at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chonburi FC's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangmai United at home: 0.40 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chiangmai United
2
Draws
0
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangmai United have won 0, Chonburi FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-1 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangmai United 50%, Chonburi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Chiangmai United) and 60% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangmai United have failed to score in 40% of games; Chonburi FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangmai United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangmai United play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chiangmai United's recent matches and 50% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangmai United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chiangmai United's recent games and 60% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Chiangmai United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangmai United and Chonburi FC finished level at 1-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangmai United 1.12 xG and Chonburi FC 1.61 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangmai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.56 against Chonburi FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.35, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangmai United 26% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 48%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangmai United 56%, Chonburi FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangmai United's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.