Buriram United 4-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host Sukhothai FC at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 14 February 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United at Chang Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Buriram United at 1.90 PPG versus Sukhothai FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Buriram United: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Sukhothai FC, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Buriram United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 52% versus Sukhothai FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 61% | Sukhothai FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.01 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.225 / defence 0.746 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.928 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.297. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Buriram United games / 46 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 62% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Sukhothai FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 30% | Sukhothai FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Feb 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 62% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Buriram United 2.01 / Sukhothai FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.225 / def 0.746 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.928 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Sukhothai FC xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Buriram United 4 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 62% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Buriram United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Buriram United 3W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.19
14%
6.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.90
0.90
Sukhothai FC xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
6.90
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
51.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.90 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United come into this having played 46 games, going 32W 11D 3L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.15 PPG from 46 outings (13W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Buriram United's home form reads 16W 5D 1L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (4W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 32W 11D 3L in their last 46 games (2.33 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.41 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Buriram United go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2026, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Buriram United 6-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 46%, Sukhothai FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Buriram United) and 46% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Buriram United's recent matches and 64% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Buriram United's recent games and 46% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Sukhothai FC 4-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.01 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.90 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sukhothai FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.23 / defence 0.75 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 62% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 14%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 61%, Sukhothai FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.59 average — above their attacking norm. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.