Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ayutthaya Province Stadium plays host to Ayutthaya FC versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Wednesday 23 December 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Ayutthaya FC (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ayutthaya FC have posted 3W 1D 6L at Ayutthaya Province Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Port FC are 1.50 PPG clear of Ayutthaya FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.40 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ayutthaya FC 0W, Port FC 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–4 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ayutthaya FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 61% versus Port FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 48% | Port FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.32 xG and Port FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 1.005 / defence 1.114 | Port FC attack 1.188 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Ayutthaya FC games / 31 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 34% | Draw 27% | Port FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 50% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 34% | Draw 27% | Port FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.32 / Port FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 1.005 / def 1.114 | Port FC attack 1.188 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Port FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Port FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Wednesday 23 December 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 34% chance of winning, Port FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Port FC?
Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Port FC in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.19x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.76
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.44
Port FC xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.44 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 9W 8D 14L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC's form line: 19W 6D 6L from 31 games, 2.03 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ayutthaya FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.81 PPG from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 8W 2D 6L from 16 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.97 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Port FC have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.81 PPG; Port FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Ayutthaya FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ayutthaya FC have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Port FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
2
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Port FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Port FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ayutthaya FC 69%, Port FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ayutthaya FC) and 38% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 31%; Port FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 44% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 38% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Port FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.