Yverdon Sport 3-2 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Municipal plays host to Yverdon Sport versus Grasshoppers in Super League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Yverdon Sport's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Yverdon Sport at Stade Municipal this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
Grasshoppers (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Grasshoppers's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Yverdon Sport 0W, Grasshoppers 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Yverdon Sport — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Grasshoppers — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 63% versus Grasshoppers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 63% | Grasshoppers 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.41 xG and Grasshoppers 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.983 / defence 1.149 | Grasshoppers attack 0.634 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.131. Data: 30 Yverdon Sport games / 66 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 51% | Draw 27% | Grasshoppers 22%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Grasshoppers 4.55. Yverdon Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yverdon Sport at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 60% | Grasshoppers 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 51% | Draw 27% | Grasshoppers 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.41 / Grasshoppers 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.983 / def 1.149 | Grasshoppers attack 0.634 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Grasshoppers xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Yverdon Sport 3 - 2 Grasshoppers.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 51% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers?
Record (2 meetings): Yverdon Sport 0W | Draws 1 | Grasshoppers 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Grasshoppers (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Grasshoppers's attack (0.63x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 30/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.67
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.23
0.82
Grasshoppers xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 0.82 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 9W 7D 14L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Grasshoppers's form line: 8W 6D 16L from 30 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.00 for Grasshoppers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Grasshoppers have gone 2W 3D 10L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grasshoppers's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.10 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
Grasshoppers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or Grasshoppers away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.87 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Grasshoppers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grasshoppers won 5-0 on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Grasshoppers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
2
Draws
4
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers?
From 8 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 2, Grasshoppers have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Grasshoppers 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers?
Grasshoppers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 60%, Grasshoppers 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Yverdon Sport) and 40% (Grasshoppers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport have failed to score in 27% of games; Grasshoppers in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play Grasshoppers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 40% of Grasshoppers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 40% of Grasshoppers's.
Do Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yverdon Sport edge out Grasshoppers 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat Grasshoppers 3-2 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.41 xG and Grasshoppers 0.82 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Yverdon Sport beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grasshoppers outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Grasshoppers attack 0.63 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 51% | Draw 27% | Grasshoppers 22%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 63%, Grasshoppers 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.13 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.