Yverdon Sport 0-3 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Yverdon Sport at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Municipal plays host to Yverdon Sport versus Grasshoppers in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Yverdon Sport's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport at Stade Municipal this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.67 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
Grasshoppers (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grasshoppers's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Yverdon Sport's 1.67 PPG return is 1.17 points per game ahead of Grasshoppers's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Yverdon Sport register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Grasshoppers in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Yverdon Sport — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Grasshoppers — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 78% and Grasshoppers 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 56% | Grasshoppers 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 2.34 xG and Grasshoppers 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.176 / defence 1.060 | Grasshoppers attack 0.856 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.365. Grasshoppers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Yverdon Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Yverdon Sport games / 45 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 60% | Draw 23% | Grasshoppers 17%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Grasshoppers 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Yverdon Sport (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yverdon Sport at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 75% | Grasshoppers 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 60% | Draw 23% | Grasshoppers 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Yverdon Sport 2.34 / Grasshoppers 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.176 / def 1.060 | Grasshoppers attack 0.856 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Grasshoppers xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Yverdon Sport 0 - 3 Grasshoppers.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 60% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.78 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Grasshoppers (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. Flip it around — Grasshoppers's attack (0.86x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 9/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.35
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
3.58
1.24
Grasshoppers xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
10%
10.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
2%
60.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.24 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 4W 3D 2L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grasshoppers's form line: 1W 2D 6L from 9 games, 0.56 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Yverdon Sport are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grasshoppers.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Grasshoppers have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Grasshoppers in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or Grasshoppers away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 2.50 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Grasshoppers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grasshoppers won 5-0 on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Grasshoppers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
2
Draws
4
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers?
From 8 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 2, Grasshoppers have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Grasshoppers 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers?
Grasshoppers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Yverdon Sport, 100% for Grasshoppers — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Yverdon Sport and 75% for Grasshoppers. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play Grasshoppers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Yverdon Sport's games and 100% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 75% of Grasshoppers's.
Do Yverdon Sport and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Grasshoppers run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers beat Yverdon Sport 0-3 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 2.34 xG and Grasshoppers 1.24 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Yverdon Sport fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Grasshoppers outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.18 / defence 1.06 against Grasshoppers attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 60% | Draw 23% | Grasshoppers 17%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Grasshoppers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 56%, Grasshoppers 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Yverdon Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Grasshoppers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.