Yverdon Sport 3-2 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Basel 1893 make the trip to Stade Municipal to face Yverdon Sport in Super League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:15 UTC.
Form
Yverdon Sport (all games): 2W 2D 2L across 6 Super League fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.17 conceded. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Yverdon Sport have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Basel 1893 have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.33 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 0.90 for FC Basel 1893. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Yverdon Sport register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, FC Basel 1893 in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Yverdon Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 83% and FC Basel 1893 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Yverdon Sport 67% | FC Basel 1893 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 2.33 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.184 / defence 1.132 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.008 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.324. Data: 6 Yverdon Sport games / 41 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | FC Basel 1893 4.55. Yverdon Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Yverdon Sport as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 83% | FC Basel 1893 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Yverdon Sport 2.33 / FC Basel 1893 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.184 / def 1.132 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.008 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Basel 1893 xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Yverdon Sport 3 - 2 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 54% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.17 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yverdon Sport's attack rating (1.18) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.01x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 6/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.18
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
3.84
1.51
FC Basel 1893 xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
10%
10.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
2%
46.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.51 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.17 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.17 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 100%.
Last 6 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Basel 1893 won 5-0 on 21 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 1, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when FC Basel 1893 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Yverdon Sport, 100% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Yverdon Sport and 100% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Yverdon Sport's games and 100% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 100% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yverdon Sport edge out FC Basel 1893 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat FC Basel 1893 3-2 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 2.33 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.51 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.18 / defence 1.13 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 6/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 67%, FC Basel 1893 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 92%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.33 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. FC Basel 1893 shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.