Servette FC 0-1 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Servette FC and FC Thun meet at Stade de Genève in Super League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Servette FC's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Genève, Servette FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Thun have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun away from home this season: 5W 0D 1L from 6 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.17 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, FC Thun are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Servette FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Thun in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Servette FC, 1 for FC Thun and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with FC Thun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Servette FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
FC Thun — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 75% and FC Thun 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Servette FC 83% | FC Thun 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.48 xG and FC Thun 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 0.891 / defence 1.140 | FC Thun attack 1.210 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.938 / away 1.351. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Servette FC games / 12 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Servette FC 31% | Draw 22% | FC Thun 47%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | FC Thun 2.13. FC Thun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Thun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Servette FC 70% | FC Thun 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 31% | Draw 22% | FC Thun 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Servette FC 1.48 / FC Thun 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 0.891 / def 1.140 | FC Thun attack 1.210 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.938 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.86
FC Thun xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Servette FC vs FC Thun kick off?
Servette FC vs FC Thun kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Servette FC 0 - 1 FC Thun.
Where is Servette FC vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs FC Thun part of?
Servette FC vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 31% chance of winning, FC Thun a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Servette FC and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will Servette FC vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Thun?
Record (1 meetings): Servette FC 0W | Draws 0 | FC Thun 1W.
What form are Servette FC and FC Thun in?
Servette FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC Thun (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Servette FC's attack at 0.89x the league average against FC Thun's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.21x) against Servette FC's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
31%
3.25
22%
4.45
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.34
1.86
FC Thun xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
5%
20.94
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.86 for FC Thun, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Servette FC come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 2D 6L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Thun sit at 2.33 PPG from 12 outings (9W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Thun carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Servette FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Servette FC's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Thun have taken 2.50 points per game from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Servette FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.08 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; FC Thun in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Servette FC and FC Thun in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 9W 1D 2L in their last 12 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.33 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Thun have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Thun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Servette FC
0
Draws
3
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Thun?
From 3 meetings on record, Servette FC have won 0, FC Thun have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Servette FC 1-3 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Servette FC, 67% for FC Thun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Servette FC and 83% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Thun in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Servette FC play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Servette FC's games and 67% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Servette FC vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Servette FC's matches and 83% of FC Thun's.
Do Servette FC and FC Thun tend to score early?
Servette FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out Servette FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat Servette FC 0-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.48 xG and FC Thun 1.86 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Servette FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Thun landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against FC Thun attack 1.21 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 31% | Draw 22% | FC Thun 47%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 83%, FC Thun 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Thun's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.