Servette FC 3-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Sion at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Geneve plays host to Servette FC versus FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Servette FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC at Stade de Geneve this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Servette FC are significantly better at Stade de Geneve than their overall form suggests.
FC Sion's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Sion are 0.70 PPG clear of Servette FC in recent Super League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Servette FC, who have won 3 of the last 9 meetings against FC Sion — a 6D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Servette FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 66% and FC Sion 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 57% | FC Sion 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.19 xG and FC Sion 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 0.742 / defence 0.838 | FC Sion attack 1.229 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.790 / away 1.927. Servette FC's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Sion have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Servette FC games / 42 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Servette FC 22% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 56%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | FC Sion 1.79. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Servette FC dominate the H2H record, yet FC Sion are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Servette FC 40% | FC Sion 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de Geneve • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 22% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Servette FC 1.19 / FC Sion 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 0.742 / def 0.838 | FC Sion attack 1.229 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.790 / away 1.927 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.98
FC Sion xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Servette FC vs FC Sion kick off?
Servette FC vs FC Sion kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stade de Geneve.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Servette FC 3 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is Servette FC vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Geneve.
What competition is Servette FC vs FC Sion part of?
Servette FC vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 22% chance of winning, FC Sion a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Servette FC and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will Servette FC vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Sion?
Record (9 meetings): Servette FC 3W | Draws 6 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are Servette FC and FC Sion in?
Servette FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC Sion (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (0.74) and FC Sion's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (1.23x) against Servette FC's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
22%
4.45
22%
4.62
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.98
FC Sion xG
4.45
22%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
3%
32.38
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.98 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 16W 15D 16L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion's form line: 22W 16D 9L from 47 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Servette FC against 1.74 for FC Sion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 10W 8D 5L from 23 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Servette FC are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.83 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Sion in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Servette FC and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 16W 15D 16L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 22W 16D 9L in their last 47 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or FC Sion away?
FC Sion's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.39 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Servette FC or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Servette FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, FC Sion in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Servette FC won 5-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Servette FC
6
Draws
0
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, Servette FC have won 4, FC Sion have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Servette FC 3-0 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and FC Sion?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Servette FC 56%, FC Sion 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Servette FC and 70% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 30%; Servette FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Servette FC play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Servette FC's games and 65% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Servette FC vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Servette FC's matches and 70% of FC Sion's.
Do Servette FC and FC Sion tend to score early?
Servette FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Servette FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat FC Sion 3-0 at Stade de Geneve, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.19 xG and FC Sion 1.98 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Servette FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.74 / defence 0.84 against FC Sion attack 1.23 / defence 0.89, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 22% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 56%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Servette FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 57%, FC Sion 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.34 PPG, FC Sion 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.