Lausanne 3-2 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Lausanne welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Lausanne haven't played a Super League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stade de la Tuilière, Lausanne have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Basel 1893 stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Basel 1893 haven't played a Super League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 1.30 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lausanne, 0 for FC Basel 1893 and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 58% versus FC Basel 1893 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 55% | FC Basel 1893 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.52 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.055 / defence 0.973 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.009 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.157. Data: 33 Lausanne games / 33 FC Basel 1893 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 28%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | FC Basel 1893 3.57. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lausanne 30% | FC Basel 1893 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Lausanne 1.52 / FC Basel 1893 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.055 / def 0.973 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.009 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FC Basel 1893 xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne 3 - 2 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 46% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Record (2 meetings): Lausanne 1W | Draws 1 | FC Basel 1893 0W.
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lausanne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (1.05) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.92
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.65
1.14
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.14 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 12D 15L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. Lausanne haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 13W 10D 15L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. FC Basel 1893 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.18 PPG, FC Basel 1893 on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 6W 4D 9L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.18 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Pre-Season
FC Basel 1893
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
Lausanne's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.47 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
4
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 47%, FC Basel 1893 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Lausanne) and 53% (FC Basel 1893).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC Basel 1893 in 32%; Lausanne have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Basel 1893 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Basel 1893?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lausanne's recent matches and 53% of FC Basel 1893's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Lausanne's recent games and 53% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out FC Basel 1893 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Basel 1893 3-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.52 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.14 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 46% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 28%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 55%, FC Basel 1893 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.18 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.