Grasshoppers 1-1 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grasshoppers at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grasshoppers vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round as Grasshoppers welcome FC Thun to Stadion Letzigrund. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Grasshoppers — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Grasshoppers's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Letzigrund this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Grasshoppers are significantly better at Stadion Letzigrund than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.38 xG and FC Thun 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.826 / defence 0.958 | FC Thun attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.108. Data: 69 Grasshoppers games / 0 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 48% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 25%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | FC Thun 4.00. Grasshoppers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grasshoppers at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grasshoppers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grasshoppers vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Letzigrund • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grasshoppers 48% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Grasshoppers 1.38 / FC Thun 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Grasshoppers attack 0.826 / def 0.958 | FC Thun attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Grasshoppers (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Grasshoppers xG
Expected Goals
0.90
FC Thun xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grasshoppers vs FC Thun kick off?
Grasshoppers vs FC Thun kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Stadion Letzigrund.
What was the final score in Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Grasshoppers 1 - 1 FC Thun.
Where is Grasshoppers vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letzigrund.
What competition is Grasshoppers vs FC Thun part of?
Grasshoppers vs FC Thun is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives Grasshoppers a 48% chance of winning, FC Thun a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Grasshoppers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Grasshoppers and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will Grasshoppers vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and FC Thun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grasshoppers and FC Thun in?
Grasshoppers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Grasshoppers home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grasshoppers's attack at 0.83x the league average against FC Thun's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus Grasshoppers's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grasshoppers Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.64
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Grasshoppers xG
Total xG
2.28
0.90
FC Thun xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Grasshoppers and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 0.90 for FC Thun, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grasshoppers
Pre-Season
FC Thun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Thun have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2026, when FC Thun won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grasshoppers's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Grasshoppers
2
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, Grasshoppers have won 1, FC Thun have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grasshoppers and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Thun 5-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between Grasshoppers and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grasshoppers home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Grasshoppers and FC Thun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letzigrund, Relegation Round, as Grasshoppers and FC Thun drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.38 xG and FC Thun 0.90 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against FC Thun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 69/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 48% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 25%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.