FC Zurich 1-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC Zurich (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Zurich face FC Sion.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Zurich host FC Sion at Stadion Letzigrund in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Zurich — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Zurich have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Zurich's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Letzigrund this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 3W 2D 2L from 7 Super League matches — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, FC Zurich have the edge — a 0.73 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.57) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Zurich have won 2, FC Sion 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Zurich in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
FC Sion in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Zurich 57% versus FC Sion 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Zurich 43% | FC Sion 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Zurich 1.91 xG and FC Sion 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Zurich attack 1.049 / defence 0.896 | FC Sion attack 0.815 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.287. Data: 40 FC Zurich games / 7 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Zurich 60% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Zurich 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | FC Sion 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Zurich (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Zurich at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Zurich 50% | FC Sion 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Zurich vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Letzigrund • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Zurich 60% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Zurich 1.91 / FC Sion 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: FC Zurich attack 1.049 / def 0.896 | FC Sion attack 0.815 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: FC Zurich (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
FC Zurich xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FC Sion xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Zurich vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Zurich vs FC Sion kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadion Letzigrund.
What was the final score in FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
FC Zurich 1 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is FC Zurich vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letzigrund.
What competition is FC Zurich vs FC Sion part of?
FC Zurich vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Zurich a 60% chance of winning, FC Sion a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Zurich the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Zurich and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Zurich vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Zurich and FC Sion?
Record (3 meetings): FC Zurich 2W | Draws 1 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are FC Zurich and FC Sion in?
FC Zurich (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. FC Sion (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.86 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Zurich's attack rating (1.05) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Zurich's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Zurich Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.57
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
FC Zurich xG
Total xG
2.85
0.94
FC Sion xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
37.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC Zurich and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for FC Zurich and 0.94 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, FC Zurich have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 2D 1L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Zurich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sion's form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Zurich are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Sion.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Zurich have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Zurich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Zurich are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded. FC Zurich's scoring rate against FC Sion's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: FC Zurich have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; FC Sion in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Zurich
Early Season
FC Sion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Zurich and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Zurich have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Zurich at home or FC Sion away?
FC Zurich's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Zurich at home: 2.33 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Zurich or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Zurich have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, FC Sion in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Zurich's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Zurich
2
Draws
4
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Zurich and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Zurich have won 4, FC Sion have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Zurich and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Zurich 1-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Zurich at 67%, FC Sion at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC Zurich) and 67% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Zurich keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Sion in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Zurich home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Zurich play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Zurich's games and 67% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Zurich vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Zurich's recent games and 67% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Zurich and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Zurich have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Zurich edge out FC Sion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Zurich beat FC Sion 1-0 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.91 xG and FC Sion 0.94 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Zurich fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Sion landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against FC Sion attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 60% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 18%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 43%, FC Sion 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Zurich's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Sion's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.