FC Winterthur 1-4 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Winterthur vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Schützenwiese plays host to FC Winterthur versus FC Thun in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Tuesday 16 December 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FC Winterthur (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Winterthur at Stadion Schützenwiese this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Thun's overall Super League record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Thun have gone 6W 0D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Thun are 1.30 PPG clear of FC Winterthur in recent Super League fixtures (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, FC Thun in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC Winterthur 0W, FC Thun 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with FC Thun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Winterthur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 71%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Thun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Winterthur 65% and FC Thun 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Winterthur 88% | FC Thun 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 1.38 xG and FC Thun 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 0.949 / defence 1.345 | FC Thun attack 1.031 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.342. Data: 50 FC Winterthur games / 17 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 49%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | FC Thun 2.04. FC Thun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Thun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Winterthur 80% | FC Thun 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Winterthur 1.38 / FC Thun 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 0.949 / def 1.345 | FC Thun attack 1.031 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.86
FC Thun xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Winterthur vs FC Thun kick off?
FC Winterthur vs FC Thun kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 16 December 2025 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs FC Thun?
FC Winterthur 1 - 4 FC Thun.
Where is FC Winterthur vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs FC Thun part of?
FC Winterthur vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 29% chance of winning, FC Thun a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Winterthur and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC Winterthur vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and FC Thun?
Record (1 meetings): FC Winterthur 0W | Draws 0 | FC Thun 1W.
What form are FC Winterthur and FC Thun in?
FC Winterthur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. FC Thun (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Winterthur's attack rating (0.95) and FC Thun's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.03x) against FC Winterthur's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 50/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
29%
3.50
23%
4.43
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
3.24
1.86
FC Thun xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
4%
22.53
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.86 for FC Thun, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, FC Winterthur have picked up 0.59 PPG on a 2W 4D 11L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Winterthur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Thun's form line: 11W 1D 5L from 17 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 1.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Winterthur.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Winterthur have posted 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 6W 0D 2L from 8 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Winterthur are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 1.82 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Thun in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Winterthur and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 2W 4D 11L in their last 17 games (0.59 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 11W 1D 5L in their last 17 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Winterthur at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Winterthur at home: 0.62 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Thun go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Thun won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Winterthur have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Thun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
FC Winterthur
0
Draws
3
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and FC Thun?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Winterthur have won 0, FC Thun have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when FC Winterthur 0-3 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for FC Winterthur, 62% for FC Thun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Winterthur and 75% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Thun in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Winterthur play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of FC Winterthur's games and 62% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Winterthur vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Winterthur's matches and 75% of FC Thun's.
Do FC Winterthur and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC Winterthur have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Winterthur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Winterthur 1-4 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.38 xG and FC Thun 1.86 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC Thun outscored their 1.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.95 / defence 1.34 against FC Thun attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 49%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 88%, FC Thun 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.