FC Thun 2-4 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Thun vs Servette FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stockhorn Arena plays host to FC Thun versus Servette FC in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Thun have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.90 conceded. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Thun's home record at Stockhorn Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Thun are significantly better at Stockhorn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Servette FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Servette FC have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Servette FC's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Servette FC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Historically, FC Thun have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Servette FC managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with FC Thun winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Thun and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
FC Thun half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 69% and Servette FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Thun 73% | Servette FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 0.95 xG and Servette FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.671 / defence 1.014 | Servette FC attack 0.745 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.855. FC Thun's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 FC Thun games / 40 Servette FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 26% | Draw 27% | Servette FC 47%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Servette FC 2.13. Servette FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
FC Thun dominate the H2H record, yet Servette FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Servette FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Thun 50% | Servette FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 26% | Draw 27% | Servette FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Thun 0.95 / Servette FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.671 / def 1.014 | Servette FC attack 0.745 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.769 / away 1.855 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Servette FC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs Servette FC kick off?
FC Thun vs Servette FC kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs Servette FC?
FC Thun 2 - 4 Servette FC.
Where is FC Thun vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs Servette FC part of?
FC Thun vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 26% chance of winning, Servette FC a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Thun and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Servette FC?
Record (3 meetings): FC Thun 3W | Draws 0 | Servette FC 0W.
What form are FC Thun and Servette FC in?
FC Thun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Servette FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (0.67) and Servette FC's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (0.74x) against FC Thun's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
26%
3.91
27%
3.69
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
FC Thun xG
Total xG
2.35
1.40
Servette FC xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
6%
15.90
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Thun and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.40 for Servette FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Thun's recent record stands at 26W 4D 15L from 45 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Servette FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 15L across 45 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Servette FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Thun by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Servette FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Thun have managed 12W 3D 7L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Servette FC's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Thun are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.69 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Servette FC in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Early Season
Servette FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and Servette FC in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 26W 4D 15L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 15W 15D 15L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or Servette FC away?
FC Thun's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 1.77 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 16 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Thun have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Servette FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Thun
0
Draws
1
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Servette FC?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 3, Servette FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2026, when FC Thun 2-4 Servette FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and Servette FC?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for FC Thun, 73% for Servette FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Thun and 54% for Servette FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Thun have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Thun's games and 73% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Thun's matches and 54% of Servette FC's.
Do FC Thun and Servette FC tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over FC Thun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat FC Thun 2-4 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 0.95 xG and Servette FC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Servette FC outscored their 1.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.67 / defence 1.01 against Servette FC attack 0.74 / defence 0.80, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 26% | Draw 27% | Servette FC 47%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 73%, Servette FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Servette FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Servette FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Thun (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.