FC Thun 1-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stockhorn Arena plays host to FC Thun versus FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Thun have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stockhorn Arena, FC Thun have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Sion's overall Super League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Sion have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in FC Thun's favour (2.40 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Thun register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Sion in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Thun lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with FC Thun winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Thun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Sion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 75% and FC Sion 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Thun 79% | FC Sion 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 2.55 xG and FC Sion 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.354 / defence 0.969 | FC Sion attack 1.055 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.518. FC Thun carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 FC Thun games / 57 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 58% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | FC Sion 4.76. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 70% | FC Sion 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 58% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Thun 2.55 / FC Sion 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.354 / def 0.969 | FC Sion attack 1.055 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.55
FC Sion xG
74%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Sion kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC Sion?
FC Thun 1 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Sion part of?
FC Thun vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 58% chance of winning, FC Sion a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Thun and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Sion?
Record (2 meetings): FC Thun 2W | Draws 0 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are FC Thun and FC Sion in?
FC Thun (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC Sion (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Thun's attack at 1.35x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (1.05x) against FC Thun's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 24/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.68
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
FC Thun xG
Total xG
4.10
1.55
FC Sion xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.87
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
8%
12.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
2%
61.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.55 for FC Sion, a combined total of 4.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Thun's recent record stands at 18W 1D 5L from 24 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 5L across 24 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Thun by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Sion heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Thun have managed 7W 1D 3L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 3W 6D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Thun are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Sion in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 18W 1D 5L in their last 24 games (2.29 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 9W 10D 5L in their last 24 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Sion away?
FC Thun's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.36 PPG.
Have FC Thun or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Thun have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, FC Sion in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Thun have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Thun
0
Draws
1
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Sion?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 3, FC Sion have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FC Sion 2-0 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Sion?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for FC Thun, 82% for FC Sion — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC Thun and 64% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FC Thun's games and 82% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC Thun's matches and 64% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Thun and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Sion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Sion 1-0 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.55 xG and FC Sion 1.55 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Thun fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Sion landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.35 / defence 0.97 against FC Sion attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 58% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 21%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 79%, FC Sion 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.54. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.