FC Thun 3-8 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Thun at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Championship Group - 37 sees BSC Young Boys travel to Stockhorn Arena to take on FC Thun. The game is scheduled for Thursday 14 May 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Thun at Stockhorn Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Thun are significantly better at Stockhorn Arena than their overall form suggests.
BSC Young Boys — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Thun 1.30 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Thun register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, BSC Young Boys in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Thun, 1 for BSC Young Boys and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with FC Thun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Thun in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 69% and BSC Young Boys 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 75% | BSC Young Boys 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 2.67 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.340 / defence 0.932 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.135 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.427. FC Thun carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 2.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 FC Thun games / 66 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 20% | BSC Young Boys 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | BSC Young Boys 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.17. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.17 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.67 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 70% | BSC Young Boys 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 37 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 20% | BSC Young Boys 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Thun 2.67 / BSC Young Boys 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.340 / def 0.932 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.135 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.51
BSC Young Boys xG
74%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 15:30 on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
FC Thun 3 - 8 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys is a Championship Group - 37 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 61% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Thun and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and BSC Young Boys?
Record (3 meetings): FC Thun 2W | Draws 0 | BSC Young Boys 1W.
What form are FC Thun and BSC Young Boys in?
FC Thun (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (1.34) and BSC Young Boys's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.3%), 1-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
61%
1.64
20%
4.99
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
1 – 1
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
FC Thun xG
Total xG
4.17
1.51
BSC Young Boys xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
7%
14.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
1%
75.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are FC Thun and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.51 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 4.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, FC Thun have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 24W 2D 10L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 14W 9D 13L from 36 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against BSC Young Boys.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Thun have posted 2.11 PPG from 18 outings (12W 2D 4L).
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 5W 5D 8L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Thun are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 1.92 scored and 1.75 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Current Season
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 24W 2D 10L in their last 36 games (2.06 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 14W 9D 13L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or BSC Young Boys away?
FC Thun's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.11 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Thun and BSC Young Boys runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
BSC Young Boys have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when BSC Young Boys won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Thun's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
0
Draws
3
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and BSC Young Boys?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, BSC Young Boys have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Thun 0-6 BSC Young Boys.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Thun at 72%, BSC Young Boys at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for FC Thun and 72% for BSC Young Boys. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of FC Thun's games and 72% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of FC Thun's matches and 72% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do FC Thun and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 3-8 hammering of FC Thun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC Thun 3-8 at Stockhorn Arena, Championship Group - 37, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.67 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.51 xG, a combined 4.17. The scoreboard read 3-8 for 11 actual goals. BSC Young Boys outscored their 1.51 projection by 6.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.34 / defence 0.93 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.14 / defence 1.16, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 61% | Draw 20% | BSC Young Boys 19%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a BSC Young Boys win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 11, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 75%, BSC Young Boys 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with BSC Young Boys winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Thun (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.