FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC ST. Gallen (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC ST. Gallen face Lausanne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 10 as FC ST. Gallen welcome Lausanne to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at Kybunpark: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: FC ST. Gallen have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Lausanne have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC ST. Gallen and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lausanne trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 72% and Lausanne 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 72% | Lausanne 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.43 xG and Lausanne 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.901 / defence 1.128 | Lausanne attack 0.609 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.862. Data: 42 FC ST. Gallen games / 42 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 41% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 34%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Lausanne 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | Lausanne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 41% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.43 / Lausanne 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.901 / def 1.128 | Lausanne attack 0.609 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.862 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Lausanne xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 0 Lausanne.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 41% chance of winning, Lausanne a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
Record (9 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 6W | Draws 2 | Lausanne 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 0.90x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.90
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.28
Lausanne xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.28 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 24W 11D 12L from 47 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 23L across 47 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC ST. Gallen by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 11W 4D 8L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.28 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Lausanne in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 24W 11D 12L in their last 47 games (1.77 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Lausanne away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.61 PPG; Lausanne away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, Lausanne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 61%, Lausanne 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for FC ST. Gallen and 61% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 56% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 61% of Lausanne's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Lausanne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 1-0 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.43 xG and Lausanne 1.28 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lausanne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Lausanne attack 0.61 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 41% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 34%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 72%, Lausanne 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.