FC ST. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen host FC Thun at Kybunpark in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC ST. Gallen — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Kybunpark this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Thun away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC ST. Gallen have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, FC Thun 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC ST. Gallen in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Thun in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 76% and FC Thun 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 73% | FC Thun 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.91 xG and FC Thun 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.988 / defence 0.933 | FC Thun attack 1.157 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.836 / away 1.738. Data: 36 FC ST. Gallen games / 36 FC Thun games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 40% | Draw 21% | FC Thun 39%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | FC Thun 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Thun 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 40% | Draw 21% | FC Thun 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.91 / FC Thun 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.988 / def 0.933 | FC Thun attack 1.157 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.836 / away 1.738 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.88
FC Thun xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
FC ST. Gallen 3 - 4 FC Thun.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 40% chance of winning, FC Thun a 39% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun?
Record (4 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 1W | Draws 2 | FC Thun 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. FC Thun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC ST. Gallen's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Thun's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
40%
2.51
21%
4.68
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.78
1.88
FC Thun xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.36
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.88 for FC Thun, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 22W 11D 8L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Thun's form line: 25W 3D 13L from 41 games, 1.90 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.88 PPG, FC Thun on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 13W 1D 7L from 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.07 scored and 1.54 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; FC Thun in 71%.
Last 41 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
FC Thun
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 22W 11D 8L in their last 41 games (1.88 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 25W 3D 13L in their last 41 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.76 PPG; FC Thun away: 1.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, FC Thun have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 62%, FC Thun at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC ST. Gallen and 76% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 71% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 76% of FC Thun's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Thun defy the odds to beat FC ST. Gallen 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC ST. Gallen 3-4 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.91 xG and FC Thun 1.88 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Thun outscored their 1.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against FC Thun attack 1.16 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 40% | Draw 21% | FC Thun 39%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Thun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 73%, FC Thun 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.88 PPG, FC Thun 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Thun win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.