FC ST. Gallen 1-1 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen host FC Thun at Kybunpark in Super League, Championship Group - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC ST. Gallen — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Kybunpark this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Thun away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC ST. Gallen have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, FC Thun 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC ST. Gallen in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Thun in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 73% and FC Thun 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 73% | FC Thun 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.46 xG and FC Thun 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.996 / defence 0.896 | FC Thun attack 1.076 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.427. Data: 66 FC ST. Gallen games / 33 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 37% | Draw 30% | FC Thun 33%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | FC Thun 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Thun 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 38 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 37% | Draw 30% | FC Thun 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.46 / FC Thun 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.996 / def 0.896 | FC Thun attack 1.076 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.38
FC Thun xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 1 FC Thun.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun is a Championship Group - 38 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 37% chance of winning, FC Thun a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun?
Record (3 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 1W | Draws 1 | FC Thun 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. FC Thun (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC ST. Gallen's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against FC Thun's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.36
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
2.83
1.38
FC Thun xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.38 for FC Thun, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 20W 9D 8L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
FC Thun's form line: 24W 2D 11L from 37 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.86 PPG, FC Thun on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (10W 2D 6L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 12W 0D 6L from 18 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.14 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; FC Thun in 70%.
Last 37 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
FC Thun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 20W 9D 8L in their last 37 games (1.86 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 24W 2D 11L in their last 37 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.78 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, FC Thun have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 56%, FC Thun 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for FC ST. Gallen and 78% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 67% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 78% of FC Thun's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun finished level at 1-1 at Kybunpark, Championship Group - 38, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.46 xG and FC Thun 1.38 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against FC Thun attack 1.08 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 37% | Draw 30% | FC Thun 33%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 73%, FC Thun 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.86 PPG, FC Thun 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.