FC ST. Gallen 3-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 18 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Sion to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 December 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 6W 0D 4L at Kybunpark — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Sion — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 1.60 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 1 for FC Sion and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with FC Sion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Sion trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 62% and FC Sion 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 53% | FC Sion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.55 xG and FC Sion 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.992 / defence 1.010 | FC Sion attack 1.072 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.342. Data: 50 FC ST. Gallen games / 50 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 40% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 36%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | FC Sion 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 50% | FC Sion 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 40% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.55 / FC Sion 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.992 / def 1.010 | FC Sion attack 1.072 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.45
FC Sion xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 16 December 2025 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen 3 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 40% chance of winning, FC Sion a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
Record (7 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 3W | Draws 3 | FC Sion 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. FC Sion (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 0.99x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
40%
2.50
24%
4.13
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.00
1.45
FC Sion xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.45 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 23W 14D 18L from 55 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 20L across 55 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.51 PPG, FC Sion on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 14W 6D 7L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 6W 7D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 23W 14D 18L in their last 55 games (1.51 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 18W 17D 20L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Sion away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.78 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
4
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Sion have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 59%, FC Sion 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FC ST. Gallen) and 48% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Sion in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 59% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of FC ST. Gallen's recent games and 48% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Sion 3-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.55 xG and FC Sion 1.45 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against FC Sion attack 1.07 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 40% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 36%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 53%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.51 PPG, FC Sion 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.