FC Sion 1-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host Yverdon Sport at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 3W 2D 3L from 8 Super League matches — 1.38 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Tourbillon, FC Sion have gone 2W 2D 0L this season (4 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Tourbillon. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.38 — FC Sion are significantly better at Stade de Tourbillon than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Sion 1.38 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
FC Sion in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Yverdon Sport in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 38% versus Yverdon Sport 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 38% | Yverdon Sport 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.72 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.919 / defence 0.777 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.770 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.228. Yverdon Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Sion's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 8 FC Sion games / 41 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 61% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Yverdon Sport 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sion at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 25% | Yverdon Sport 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 61% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Sion 1.72 / Yverdon Sport 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.919 / def 0.777 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.770 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Yverdon Sport xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
FC Sion 1 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 61% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Sion and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Yverdon Sport?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and Yverdon Sport in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.28
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.46
0.73
Yverdon Sport xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
3%
36.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC Sion and 0.73 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sion come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.38 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Sion's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — FC Sion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Yverdon Sport have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sion are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC Sion's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 2.00 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.25 PPG.
Have FC Sion or Yverdon Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Yverdon Sport in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
FC Sion's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Sion
3
Draws
0
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Yverdon Sport?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 1, Yverdon Sport have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Yverdon Sport?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sion see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 25%, Yverdon Sport 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (FC Sion) and 50% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Yverdon Sport in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play Yverdon Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of FC Sion's recent matches and 50% of Yverdon Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of FC Sion's recent games and 50% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and Yverdon Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 9, as FC Sion and Yverdon Sport drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.72 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.73 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 0.78 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 8/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 61% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 16%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 38%, Yverdon Sport 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.38 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.