FC Sion 0-1 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Zurich at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Zurich at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's home record at Stade de Tourbillon: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Super League appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Zurich have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Zurich's away record: 3W 2D 2L from 7 road trips in Super League this season (1.57 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Sion at 1.20 PPG versus FC Zurich's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Sion register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, FC Zurich in 71% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC Sion trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Zurich trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 69%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 77% and FC Zurich 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Sion 54% | FC Zurich 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.52 xG and FC Zurich 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.804 / defence 1.187 | FC Zurich attack 1.016 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.533. FC Zurich bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 FC Sion games / 13 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 31% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | FC Zurich 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Zurich as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Zurich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 67% | FC Zurich 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 31% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Sion 1.52 / FC Zurich 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.804 / def 1.187 | FC Zurich attack 1.016 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: FC Zurich (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.85
FC Zurich xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
FC Sion 0 - 1 FC Zurich.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 31% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Zurich the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Sion and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. FC Zurich (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against FC Zurich's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Zurich Win
31%
3.27
25%
3.99
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.37
1.85
FC Zurich xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
5%
20.76
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.85 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 2L across 13 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Zurich by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Sion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Zurich's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Zurich's season.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 2.38 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; FC Zurich in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Zurich's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.17 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Zurich runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, FC Zurich have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Zurich 1-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Sion at 67%, FC Zurich at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Sion and 100% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Zurich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Sion's games and 83% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Sion's matches and 100% of FC Zurich's.
Do FC Sion and FC Zurich tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Zurich edge out FC Sion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Zurich beat FC Sion 0-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.52 xG and FC Zurich 1.85 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Zurich landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against FC Zurich attack 1.02 / defence 1.40, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 31% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 44%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 54%, FC Zurich 85%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Zurich's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.