FC Sion 1-1 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Zurich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Zurich at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's home record at Stade de Tourbillon: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Zurich have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Zurich's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, FC Sion have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Sion register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Zurich in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for FC Sion, 3 for FC Zurich and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with FC Sion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Sion trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Zurich trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 54% and FC Zurich 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Sion 56% | FC Zurich 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 2.54 xG and FC Zurich 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 1.117 / defence 0.824 | FC Zurich attack 0.885 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.826 / away 1.908. FC Zurich bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 FC Sion games / 41 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 62% | Draw 18% | FC Zurich 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 1.61 | Draw 5.56 | FC Zurich 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.93 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 70% | FC Zurich 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 62% | Draw 18% | FC Zurich 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Sion 2.54 / FC Zurich 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 1.117 / def 0.824 | FC Zurich attack 0.885 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.826 / away 1.908 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC Zurich xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
FC Sion 1 - 1 FC Zurich.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 62% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Sion and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
Record (9 meetings): FC Sion 4W | Draws 2 | FC Zurich 3W.
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in?
FC Sion (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. FC Zurich (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against FC Zurich's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.54. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
62%
1.60
18%
5.54
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.93
1.39
FC Zurich xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
8%
12.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
2%
64.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.39 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion's recent record stands at 22W 15D 9L from 46 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 26L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Sion by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Zurich heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 12W 7D 4L from 23 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Zurich's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.35 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Zurich in 70%.
Defensively: FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 22W 15D 9L in their last 46 games (1.76 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 14W 6D 26L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Sion's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.87 PPG; FC Zurich away: 0.87 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 4%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Zurich runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
3
Draws
3
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, FC Zurich have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when FC Sion 1-1 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 44%, FC Zurich 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for FC Sion and 78% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; FC Zurich in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Zurich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Sion's recent matches and 65% of FC Zurich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of FC Sion's matches and 78% of FC Zurich's.
Do FC Sion and FC Zurich tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and FC Zurich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 9, as FC Sion and FC Zurich drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 2.54 xG and FC Zurich 1.39 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.12 / defence 0.82 against FC Zurich attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 62% | Draw 18% | FC Zurich 20%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 56%, FC Zurich 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Zurich's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Zurich (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.