FC Sion 1-1 FC Winterthur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Winterthur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Tourbillon plays host to FC Sion versus FC Winterthur in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Sion have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Tourbillon. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Sion are significantly better at Stade de Tourbillon than their overall form suggests.
FC Winterthur's overall Super League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Winterthur's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC Sion. A 0.90 PPG lead over FC Winterthur (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Sion lead 4W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2026, ended 2–0 with FC Sion winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Sion — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
FC Winterthur — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 58% versus FC Winterthur 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 46% | FC Winterthur 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 2.32 xG and FC Winterthur 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.886 / defence 0.619 | FC Winterthur attack 0.711 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.468. FC Winterthur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Sion's defence rating of 0.619 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 FC Sion games / 61 FC Winterthur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 73% | Draw 20% | FC Winterthur 7%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 1.37 | Draw 5.00 | FC Winterthur 14.29. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (73%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sion at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 40% | FC Winterthur 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Winterthur | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 73% | Draw 20% | FC Winterthur 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 45% | xG FC Sion 2.32 / FC Winterthur 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.886 / def 0.619 | FC Winterthur attack 0.711 / def 1.539 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
0.65
FC Winterthur xG
45%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Winterthur kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Winterthur kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
FC Sion 1 - 1 FC Winterthur.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Winterthur being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Winterthur part of?
FC Sion vs FC Winterthur is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 73% chance of winning, FC Winterthur a 7% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC Sion and FC Winterthur will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Winterthur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Winterthur?
Record (9 meetings): FC Sion 4W | Draws 1 | FC Winterthur 4W.
What form are FC Sion and FC Winterthur in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. FC Winterthur (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.89) and FC Winterthur's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Winterthur's attack (0.71x) against FC Sion's defence (0.62x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 3-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
73%
1.37
20%
5.04
7%
14.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.96
0.65
FC Winterthur xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
14.56
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
10%
10.16
Win to Nil
38%
2.60
1%
147.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Winterthur expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for FC Sion and 0.65 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, FC Sion have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 21W 22D 23L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Winterthur's form line: 14W 13D 39L from 66 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, FC Sion are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Winterthur.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Sion have posted 1.73 PPG from 33 outings (15W 12D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — FC Sion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Winterthur have gone 4W 6D 23L from 33 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Sion are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC Winterthur are on 1.12 scored and 2.21 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Current Season
FC Winterthur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Winterthur in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 21W 22D 23L in their last 66 games (1.29 PPG), while FC Winterthur have gone 14W 13D 39L in their last 66 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Winterthur away?
FC Sion's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.73 PPG; FC Winterthur away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Winterthur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
FC Winterthur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Winterthur?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, FC Winterthur have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Winterthur last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when FC Sion 1-1 FC Winterthur.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 54%, FC Winterthur 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 42% for FC Sion and 79% for FC Winterthur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC Winterthur in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Winterthur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Winterthur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Sion's games and 58% of FC Winterthur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC Winterthur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of FC Sion's matches and 79% of FC Winterthur's.
Do FC Sion and FC Winterthur tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Winterthur in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and FC Winterthur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion and FC Winterthur finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 2.32 xG and FC Winterthur 0.65 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.89 / defence 0.62 against FC Winterthur attack 0.71 / defence 1.54, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 73% | Draw 20% | FC Winterthur 7%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC Winterthur 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Winterthur's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.