FC Sion vs FC Thun – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Sion and FC Thun meet at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Sion (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sion's home record at Stade de Tourbillon: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Thun have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Thun away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. FC Sion's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of FC Thun's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Sion have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Thun in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC Sion 1W, FC Thun 3W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–0 with FC Sion winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC Thun half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 54% and FC Thun 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 54% | FC Thun 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 2.28 xG and FC Thun 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 1.072 / defence 0.849 | FC Thun attack 1.327 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.859 / away 1.698. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 FC Sion games / 38 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 47% | Draw 20% | FC Thun 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.13 | Draw 5.00 | FC Thun 3.03. FC Sion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
FC Thun lead the H2H ledger, but FC Sion carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sion at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 77% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 60% | FC Thun 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 47% | Draw 20% | FC Thun 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG FC Sion 2.28 / FC Thun 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 1.072 / def 0.849 | FC Thun attack 1.327 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.859 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.91
FC Thun xG
77%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Thun kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Thun is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Thun part of?
FC Sion vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 47% chance of winning, FC Thun a 33% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both FC Sion and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Thun?
Record (4 meetings): FC Sion 1W | Draws 0 | FC Thun 3W.
What form are FC Sion and FC Thun in?
FC Sion (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. FC Thun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (1.07) and FC Thun's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.33x) against FC Sion's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
47%
2.14
20%
4.93
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
FC Sion xG
Total xG
4.19
1.91
FC Thun xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.29
Clean Sheet
15%
6.77
10%
9.76
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
3%
29.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.91 for FC Thun, a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, FC Sion have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 19W 15D 9L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Thun's form line: 26W 4D 13L from 43 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for FC Sion against 1.91 for FC Thun. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Sion have posted 1.82 PPG from 22 outings (11W 7D 4L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 14W 1D 7L from 22 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Sion are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.07 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun in 70%.
Defensively: FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
FC Thun
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 19W 15D 9L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 26W 4D 13L in their last 43 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.82 PPG; FC Thun away: 1.95 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC Thun been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC Thun in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Thun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Sion
0
Draws
3
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Thun?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 1, FC Thun have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FC Sion 2-0 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 41%, FC Thun 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Sion) and 77% (FC Thun). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of FC Sion's games and 73% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of FC Sion's matches and 77% of FC Thun's.
Do FC Sion and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.