FC Sion 0-3 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host BSC Young Boys at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 July 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Sion have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade de Tourbillon — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, BSC Young Boys have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. BSC Young Boys have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Sion at 1.40 PPG versus BSC Young Boys's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BSC Young Boys in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 65% and BSC Young Boys 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Sion 57% | BSC Young Boys 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.54 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.871 / defence 1.150 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.134 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.239. Data: 37 FC Sion games / 37 BSC Young Boys games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 34% | Draw 28% | BSC Young Boys 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | BSC Young Boys 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BSC Young Boys are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 40% | BSC Young Boys 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 34% | Draw 28% | BSC Young Boys 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Sion 1.54 / BSC Young Boys 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.871 / def 1.150 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.134 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.62
BSC Young Boys xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
FC Sion 0 - 3 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 34% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Sion and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and BSC Young Boys?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.87) and BSC Young Boys's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
34%
2.93
28%
3.52
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.16
1.62
BSC Young Boys xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
7%
14.75
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.62 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sion come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 8D 17L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, BSC Young Boys sit at 1.70 PPG from 37 outings (17W 12D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Sion's home form reads 6W 4D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, BSC Young Boys have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sion are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.27 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 73%.
Last 37 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
BSC Young Boys
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 12W 8D 17L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 17W 12D 8L in their last 37 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or BSC Young Boys away?
FC Sion's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.22 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2023, when BSC Young Boys won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 50%, BSC Young Boys 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Sion and 72% for BSC Young Boys. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Sion's games and 72% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Sion's matches and 72% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do FC Sion and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC Sion 0-3 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.54 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.62 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.5 short of their projected output. BSC Young Boys outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 34% | Draw 28% | BSC Young Boys 37%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 57%, BSC Young Boys 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.