FC Basel 1893 1-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 24 as FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at St. Jakob-Park this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Lausanne — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Basel 1893 1.80 PPG, Lausanne 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Basel 1893, 2 for Lausanne and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Lausanne in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 56% versus Lausanne 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 52% | Lausanne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.93 xG and Lausanne 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.146 / defence 0.890 | Lausanne attack 1.213 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.200. Lausanne have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 FC Basel 1893 games / 56 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Lausanne 4.00. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 50% | Lausanne 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.93 / Lausanne 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.146 / def 0.890 | Lausanne attack 1.213 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Lausanne xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 51% chance of winning, Lausanne a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Record (4 meetings): FC Basel 1893 0W | Draws 2 | Lausanne 2W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Lausanne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.13
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.23
1.29
Lausanne xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
4%
28.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.29 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 25W 14D 22L from 61 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 23L across 61 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.46 PPG, Lausanne on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Basel 1893 have managed 14W 7D 9L from 30 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 6W 9D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.44 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 25W 14D 22L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Lausanne away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.63 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 53%, Lausanne 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC Basel 1893) and 67% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Basel 1893's games and 63% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 67% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne finished level at 1-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.93 xG and Lausanne 1.29 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Lausanne attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 25%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 52%, Lausanne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.46 PPG, Lausanne 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.