FC Basel 1893 0-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 1.20 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Basel 1893 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Sion in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Sion trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 61% and FC Sion 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 51% | FC Sion 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.78 xG and FC Sion 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.144 / defence 0.867 | FC Sion attack 1.089 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.378. Data: 49 FC Basel 1893 games / 50 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 47% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | FC Sion 3.85. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 60% | FC Sion 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 47% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.78 / FC Sion 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.144 / def 0.867 | FC Sion attack 1.089 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC Sion xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 0 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 47% chance of winning, FC Sion a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. FC Sion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (1.14) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.70
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.08
1.30
FC Sion xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
4%
22.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.30 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 22D 8L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.22 PPG from 49 outings (16W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.61 PPG, FC Sion on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 11W 11D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.33 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 19W 22D 8L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.76 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.20 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Sion in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Basel 1893 at 64%, FC Sion at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Basel 1893) and 60% (FC Sion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Basel 1893's games and 72% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 60% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Basel 1893's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion finished level at 0-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.78 xG and FC Sion 1.30 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Sion landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against FC Sion attack 1.09 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 47% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 26%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 51%, FC Sion 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Sion's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.61 PPG, FC Sion 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.