BSC Young Boys 3-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 11 as BSC Young Boys welcome Lausanne to Stadion Wankdorf. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BSC Young Boys — All Games: 5W 3D 1L from 9 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BSC Young Boys at Stadion Wankdorf this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wankdorf.
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 56% and Lausanne 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 56% | Lausanne 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 1.62 xG and Lausanne 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 0.922 / defence 0.882 | Lausanne attack 0.606 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.547. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing BSC Young Boys's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 BSC Young Boys games / 10 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 53% | Draw 32% | Lausanne 16%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.89 | Draw 3.12 | Lausanne 6.25. BSC Young Boys hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: BSC Young Boys 50% | Lausanne 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 53% | Draw 32% | Lausanne 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG BSC Young Boys 1.62 / Lausanne 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 0.922 / def 0.882 | Lausanne attack 0.606 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Lausanne xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
BSC Young Boys 3 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne part of?
BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 53% chance of winning, Lausanne a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both BSC Young Boys and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (0.92) and Lausanne's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus BSC Young Boys's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
53%
1.89
32%
3.16
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
2.45
0.83
Lausanne xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
3%
32.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 0.83 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BSC Young Boys's recent record stands at 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 4L across 9 games — 0.78 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BSC Young Boys by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, BSC Young Boys have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BSC Young Boys are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.22 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne in 89%.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 games (2.00 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or Lausanne away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.00 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.50 PPG.
Have BSC Young Boys or Lausanne been keeping clean sheets recently?
BSC Young Boys have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lausanne in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BSC Young Boys's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
1
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 5, Lausanne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lausanne 0-2 BSC Young Boys.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 50%, Lausanne 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (BSC Young Boys) and 25% (Lausanne).
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of BSC Young Boys's games and 75% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of BSC Young Boys's recent games and 25% of Lausanne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BSC Young Boys and Lausanne tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BSC Young Boys edge out Lausanne 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat Lausanne 3-2 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.62 xG and Lausanne 0.83 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lausanne outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against Lausanne attack 0.61 / defence 1.21, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 53% | Draw 32% | Lausanne 16%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 56%, Lausanne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lausanne's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.