Vasteras SK FK 0-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs IK brage encounter.

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Full Analysis

Hitachi Energy Arena plays host to Vasteras SK FK versus IK brage in Superettan (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Vasteras SK FK (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Vasteras SK FK's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

IK brage's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

IK brage's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Vasteras SK FK's favour (2.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for IK brage and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Vasteras SK FK 2–1 IK brage — a Vasteras SK FK win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

IK brage — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 56% versus IK brage 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 58% | IK brage 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.97 xG and IK brage 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.060 / defence 0.731 | IK brage attack 0.695 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.190. IK brage's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vasteras SK FK's projected output up. IK brage's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Vasteras SK FK have a tight defence (rating 0.731), which is pulling IK brage's projected output down. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 50 games and IK brage's last 50.

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 69% | Draw 22% | IK brage 9%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.46 | Draw 4.49 | IK brage 10.86. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (69%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 20% (last 10 home games) | IK brage 40% (last 10 away games).

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