Vasalund 0-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Vasalund welcome Helsingborg to Skytteholms IP. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 4 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasalund have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasalund have posted 3W 1D 2L at Skytteholms IP — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Helsingborg — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Vasalund) versus 1.60 (Helsingborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Vasalund in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasalund 54% versus Helsingborg 23%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasalund 69% | Helsingborg 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.13 xG and Helsingborg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 1.054 / defence 1.328 | Helsingborg attack 0.936 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.071. Data: 13 Vasalund games / 13 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 32% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Helsingborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vasalund 33% | Helsingborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 32% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Vasalund 1.13 / Helsingborg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 1.054 / def 1.328 | Helsingborg attack 0.936 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Helsingborg xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs Helsingborg kick off?
Vasalund vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 4 August 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs Helsingborg?
Vasalund 0 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Vasalund vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs Helsingborg part of?
Vasalund vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 32% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Vasalund and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasalund and Helsingborg in?
Vasalund (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasalund's attack rating (1.05) and Helsingborg's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Vasalund's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.69
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Vasalund xG
Total xG
2.46
1.33
Helsingborg xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vasalund and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Vasalund and 1.33 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasalund come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 1D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Vasalund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasalund's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Vasalund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Vasalund are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.46 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg in 23%.
Defensively: Helsingborg in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasalund and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Vasalund have gone 4W 1D 8L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasalund at home or Helsingborg away?
Vasalund's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasalund at home: 1.67 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Vasalund or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasalund have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasalund
1
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Helsingborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 0, Helsingborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2021, when Helsingborg 0-0 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasalund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vasalund 33% BTTS, Helsingborg 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vasalund) and 33% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Vasalund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helsingborg in 67%; Vasalund have failed to score in 33% of games; Helsingborg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasalund play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Vasalund's recent matches and 17% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasalund vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vasalund's recent games and 33% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out Vasalund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Vasalund 0-1 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.13 xG and Helsingborg 1.33 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasalund fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 1.05 / defence 1.33 against Helsingborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 32% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 41%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasalund 69%, Helsingborg 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasalund's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Helsingborg's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vasalund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.