Utsikten 5-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bravida Arena plays host to Utsikten versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Utsikten have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, Utsikten have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Utsikten. A 1.40 PPG lead over Landskrona BoIS (2.50 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utsikten lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Utsikten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Utsikten half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 55% versus Landskrona BoIS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 51% | Landskrona BoIS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.74 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.230 / defence 0.916 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.939 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.191. Data: 47 Utsikten games / 47 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 54% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 22%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 4.55. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 80% | Landskrona BoIS 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 54% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Utsikten 1.74 / Landskrona BoIS 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.230 / def 0.916 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.939 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Landskrona BoIS xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Utsikten 5 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 54% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (3 meetings): Utsikten 1W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS in?
Utsikten (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.94x) against Utsikten's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
54%
1.87
25%
4.03
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.76
1.02
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
26.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.02 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Utsikten's recent record stands at 22W 10D 15L from 47 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 16L across 47 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Utsikten against 1.38 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 10W 7D 6L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 5W 7D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utsikten are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.26 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Utsikten's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.61 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won 5-1 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utsikten have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Utsikten
1
Draws
3
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Utsikten 4-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 65%, Landskrona BoIS 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Utsikten) and 48% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 30%; Landskrona BoIS in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Utsikten's recent matches and 44% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Utsikten's recent games and 48% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Landskrona BoIS 5-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.74 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.02 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.23 / defence 0.92 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 54% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 22%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 51%, Landskrona BoIS 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.62 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.