Umeå FC 0-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Umeå FC face Trelleborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Umeå FC and Trelleborg meet at Umea Energi Arena in Superettan (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Trelleborg have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 1.12 xG and Trelleborg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Trelleborg attack 1.006 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.215. Data: built from Umeå FC's last 1 games and Trelleborg's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 30% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 44%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 3.34 | Draw 3.77 | Trelleborg 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Umeå FC 1 games, Trelleborg 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 2 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 30% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Umeå FC 1.12 / Trelleborg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Trelleborg attack 1.006 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Trelleborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Umeå FC vs Trelleborg FAQs
What time does Umeå FC vs Trelleborg kick off?
Umeå FC vs Trelleborg kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Umeå FC 0 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Umeå FC vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs Trelleborg part of?
Umeå FC vs Trelleborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 2) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 30% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Umeå FC and Trelleborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Umeå FC vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Umeå FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.01x) against Umeå FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Umeå FC's last 1 games and Trelleborg's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
30%
3.34
27%
3.77
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Umeå FC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.41
Trelleborg xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Umeå FC vs Trelleborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Umeå FC and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Umeå FC and 1.41 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Umeå FC (Home) vs Trelleborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 10 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Umeå FC
0
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Umeå FC vs Trelleborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Trelleborg?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Umeå FC have won 1, Trelleborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Umeå FC and Trelleborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2025: Trelleborg 0-2 Umeå FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Umeå FC home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Umeå FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Umeå FC 0-1 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 1.12 xG and Trelleborg 1.41 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Umeå FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Trelleborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 30% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 44%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.