Trelleborg 2-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Orebro SK meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trelleborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's home record at Vångavallen: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Trelleborg's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Orebro SK's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Trelleborg, 0 for Orebro SK and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 63% versus Orebro SK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 65% | Orebro SK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.62 xG and Orebro SK 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.892 / defence 1.342 | Orebro SK attack 0.955 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.124. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Trelleborg games / 46 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 41% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 34%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 40% | Orebro SK 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 7 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 41% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Trelleborg 1.62 / Orebro SK 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.892 / def 1.342 | Orebro SK attack 0.955 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Orebro SK xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Orebro SK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 7 August 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Trelleborg 2 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK part of?
Trelleborg vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 41% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Trelleborg and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
Record (3 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Orebro SK in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.95x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
41%
2.42
25%
4.01
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
3.06
1.44
Orebro SK xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.44 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 8D 19L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (13W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.17 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trelleborg's home form reads 10W 3D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.02 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 19W 8D 19L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Orebro SK away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
6
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Orebro SK have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 59%, Orebro SK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Trelleborg and 54% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 50% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Trelleborg's matches and 54% of Orebro SK's.
Do Trelleborg and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 17, as Trelleborg and Orebro SK drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.62 xG and Orebro SK 1.44 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.34 against Orebro SK attack 0.95 / defence 1.31, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 41% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 34%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 65%, Orebro SK 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.41 PPG, Orebro SK 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.