Trelleborg 2-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Norrby IF make the trip to Vångavallen to face Trelleborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Monday 4 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Trelleborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's home record at Vångavallen: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Norrby IF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Norrby IF have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Trelleborg, 1.10 for Norrby IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Norrby IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trelleborg lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Norrby IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 66% versus Norrby IF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 51% | Norrby IF 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.52 xG and Norrby IF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.059 / defence 0.904 | Norrby IF attack 0.885 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.414. Data: 41 Trelleborg games / 41 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Norrby IF 3.57. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 70% | Norrby IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 4 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Trelleborg 1.52 / Norrby IF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.059 / def 0.904 | Norrby IF attack 0.885 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Norrby IF xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Norrby IF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Norrby IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 July 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Norrby IF?
Trelleborg 2 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Norrby IF part of?
Trelleborg vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 46% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trelleborg and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Norrby IF?
Record (2 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 1 | Norrby IF 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Norrby IF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Norrby IF's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.89x) against Trelleborg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.79
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.13
Norrby IF xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
16.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.13 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 13D 12L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Norrby IF sit at 1.51 PPG from 41 outings (17W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.51 for Norrby IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trelleborg's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Norrby IF have taken 1.55 points per game from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.22 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 16W 13D 12L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 17W 11D 13L in their last 41 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Norrby IF away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.65 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Trelleborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
1
Draws
0
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Norrby IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, Norrby IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Norrby IF 2-3 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Norrby IF?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 60%, Norrby IF 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trelleborg) and 50% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Trelleborg's games and 55% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trelleborg's recent games and 50% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Norrby IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Norrby IF 2-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.52 xG and Norrby IF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Norrby IF attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 46% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 28%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 51%, Norrby IF 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.49 PPG, Norrby IF 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Norrby IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.