Skövde AIK 0-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as Skövde AIK welcome Orebro SK to Södermalms IP. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 18 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Skövde AIK have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Orebro SK — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Orebro SK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Skövde AIK) versus 1.80 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Skövde AIK's 0% rate and Orebro SK's 30% (using overall form) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.76 xG and Orebro SK 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.966 / defence 1.044 | Orebro SK attack 0.824 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.399. Data: 7 Skövde AIK games / 7 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 50% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 26%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Orebro SK 3.85. Skövde AIK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 58% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Skövde AIK as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 50% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Skövde AIK 1.76 / Orebro SK 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.966 / def 1.044 | Orebro SK attack 0.824 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Orebro SK xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 18 May 2022 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Skövde AIK 0 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK part of?
Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 50% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Skövde AIK and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Skövde AIK and Orebro SK in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Skövde AIK's attack rating (0.97) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.18
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.96
1.20
Orebro SK xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
4%
22.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.20 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Skövde AIK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. Orebro SK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Skövde AIK by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orebro SK heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Skövde AIK have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Early Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Skövde AIK or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Skövde AIK's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Skövde AIK
2
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orebro SK?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 2, Orebro SK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Skövde AIK 2-2 Orebro SK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 50% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Skövde AIK's matches and 100% of Orebro SK's.
Do Skövde AIK and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Skövde AIK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 8, as Skövde AIK and Orebro SK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.76 xG and Orebro SK 1.20 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Orebro SK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Orebro SK attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 50% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 26%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Orebro SK 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Skövde AIK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Skövde AIK managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Orebro SK managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.