Sandviken 0-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandviken at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Sandviken welcome Ostersunds FK to Jernvallens Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Sandviken have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Jernvallens Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sandviken 1.50 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sandviken register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Sandviken, 1 for Ostersunds FK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandviken in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 54% versus Ostersunds FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 59% | Ostersunds FK 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.39 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.280 / defence 1.132 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.848 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.341. Sandviken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Sandviken games / 56 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 38% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 33%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Ostersunds FK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandviken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 60% | Ostersunds FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jernvallens Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 38% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Sandviken 1.39 / Ostersunds FK 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.280 / def 1.132 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.848 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ostersunds FK xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Jernvallens Arena.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Sandviken 0 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallens Arena.
What competition is Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 38% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sandviken and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Ostersunds FK?
Record (5 meetings): Sandviken 3W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are Sandviken and Ostersunds FK in?
Sandviken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandviken's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
38%
2.67
30%
3.39
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
Ostersunds FK xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.29 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandviken's recent record stands at 21W 12D 23L from 56 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 20W 20D 16L across 56 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandviken on 1.34 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandviken have managed 13W 5D 10L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ostersunds FK's away record stands at 6W 11D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandviken are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.20 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 21W 12D 23L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 20W 20D 16L in their last 56 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Sandviken's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.57 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2025, when Sandviken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandviken's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sandviken
2
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Ostersunds FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Sandviken 0-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Ostersunds FK?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 54%, Ostersunds FK 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sandviken) and 29% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Sandviken have failed to score in 32% of games; Ostersunds FK in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sandviken's recent matches and 39% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Sandviken's recent games and 29% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandviken's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken and Ostersunds FK finished level at 0-0 at Jernvallens Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.39 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandviken fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.28 / defence 1.13 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 38% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 33%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 59%, Ostersunds FK 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.34 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.