Ostersunds FK 2-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ostersunds FK at 0.90 PPG versus Vasteras SK FK's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ostersunds FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vasteras SK FK in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ostersunds FK, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 47% versus Vasteras SK FK 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 51% | Vasteras SK FK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.26 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.892 / defence 1.269 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.837 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.359. Data: 21 Ostersunds FK games / 51 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 31% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 39%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Vasteras SK FK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | Vasteras SK FK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 31% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.26 / Vasteras SK FK 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.892 / def 1.269 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.837 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Vasteras SK FK xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 2 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 31% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.89x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.41
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.71
1.44
Vasteras SK FK xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.44 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 6W 11D 34L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 12W 21D 18L from 51 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vasteras SK FK are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.83 PPG from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 8D 10L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 11D 34L in their last 51 games (0.57 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 12W 21D 18L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.83 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when Vasteras SK FK won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Ostersunds FK 1-6 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 54%, Vasteras SK FK 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ostersunds FK) and 42% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Ostersunds FK's games and 58% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 42% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.26 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.44 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.27 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 31% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 39%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 51%, Vasteras SK FK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.